How low can you go?
Outside of weighing yourself on a scale after fasting for eight minutes or entering a local limbo league, this question is rarely asked outside of Fantasy Baseball.
But in your Rotisserie league, you want to know, how low do I need my team ERA and team WHIP to be at the end of the season to help me win gold?
Last week, I covered the five basic hitting categories for a 12-team mixed Rotisserie league. By looking at three final league standings over the past two years, I offered where your team likely needs to score in each stat in order to: win, land in the middle or just not come in last. You can look at last season's stats in your league, which will also give you a decent idea, but I did some of the math for you.
For this discussion, I'm using stats culled from the '05 and '06 seasons of our Fantasy Magazine league, which is now in its fourth season, along with the final stats from the '06 Tout Wars mixed draft. I'd also use the '05 season numbers for Tout, but the site we ran that league on doesn't have the stats available for me.
Total standings
One thing I'd like to add from last week's column, after a reader pointed this out so eloquently in an e-mail, is that these numbers are from leagues in which all of the owners are relatively active.
You're not going to see abandoned teams among this group of stats, so you'll have to assess your league first before analyzing it using these stats. If you have two owners that gave up on their team as soon as July mini-camps open, then you're looking at starting lineups that have injured players or players no longer starting for their major league club. This would obviously bring down the cumulative stats (HR, RBI, R, SB, W, saves and strikeouts). It would also allow an active team a chance to pick up available players that would normally be eaten up by an 11th or 12th team -- specifically rookies that get midseason call-ups.
The following three paragraphs are actually a recap of what I said at the beginning of last week's column.
First, let's take a look at each winner. Alex Riethmiller (SPLN '05), Aaron Weisberg (SPLN '06) and Larry Schechter of SandlotShrink.com (Tout '06).
Riethmiller won the '05 league with 91 total points (44 hitting, 47 pitching). Weisberg won with 87 total points (44 hitting, 43 pitching) and Schechter with an astounding 95.5 points (42 hitting, 53.5 pitching). Without question, you're going to need a balanced team to win your league.
To just land in the top three, you're going to need more than 80 total points -- but who wants to just land in the top three?
Pitching ideas for Fantasy success
Note: We do not have a minimum innings requirement like many leagues do. In such leagues, you might see fewer saves, more wins and strikeouts, and a higher cumulative ERA and WHIP.
Wins: Comparing the two seasons, I figured that I would see a bigger disparity between the pitching numbers from '05 to '06 than I found in the hitting categories. Remember that there was no 20-game winner last season and that a number of the top guys from previous years had down seasons with injuries or just age. But apparently, the boost received from the great influx of rookie talent seemed to offset the loss at the top. So it might be safe to say that while the top-shelf pitchers were fewer, the mid-level pitchers stepped up.
With that said, I wanted to gauge how many wins pitchers are recording through the first month of the season and see if there's a great different there.
This year, we have two five-game winners (Josh Beckett and Dontrelle Willis) and six four-game winners through the first month of the season.
I expected to see smaller numbers from last April. I was wrong.
Greg Maddux and Pedro Martinez were the only five-game winners a year ago (which certainly spells trouble for Beckett and Willis). But there were 15 four-game winners last April! So I looked back in '05. There was only one five-game winner in April (Willis) and nine four-game winners.
That, of course, made me want to dig a little deeper. In the first half of last season, there was only one 12-game winner (Roy Halladay), four 11-game winners and 11 10-game winners. But in '05, there were three 13-game winners, three 12-game winners, two 11-game winners and seven 10-game winners. There was actually one more pitcher over nine wins in '06 than in '05.
So that, in a way, bears out how there were better mid-range pitchers than those on the very top shelf.
"Enough analysis, give me numbers," you say.
In order to come out on top in wins, your staff should target about 115 victories. In both of last season's leagues represented here, the winners tallied 109 (Tout) and 122 (Mag). And in '05, the mag league leader in the category registered 112 wins.
If you reach over 100 wins, you should be set for a top-five finish in that category. If you land below 90 wins, you run the risk of sitting in the bottom three of the standings. The average for the magazine league in both seasons is 95 wins. Don't even bother looking at this stat if you come in under 80. That's last place in wins, which means you lose.
Always remember that the risk you run when chasing wins is that you stand a good chance at raising your ERA and WHIP because of the added innings from non-aces.
Saves: Earlier this season, I mentioned that about one-third of the saves recorded in a mixed league last year came from pitchers that weren't even drafted in the average league on CBS SportsLine.
So what the tells you is -- if you are short here, you can still make up ground by picking up quality pitchers.
To win this category you needed 108 saves in Tout, only 97 in the '06 mag league, and 135 in the '05 mag league. Much like steals in the hitting categories, this one is so varied because some people choose to punt it right off the bat, as one owner in the '05 mag league did. He didn't get one save, which explains why the winner that year had at least 27 saves more than the other leagues compared here.
Since the '05 league had a saves punter -- I'll mention those stats separate.
If you register 100 saves, you are top-three easy. Even if you tally 90-plus saves, it's doubtful that you will finish worse than fourth. You'll need around 75 saves to stay in the top half of this stat category. Anything below 65 can be considered bottom-feeders. If you can get a 35-save guy, with two 20-save closers, you're fine. Easier said than done, I know.
Feeling the pinch already? See if Matt Capps, Fernando Cabrera or even Matt Lindstrom in larger leagues is available. They are nice reserves to own as possible closers right now.
Strikeouts: This stat is mostly attributed to starters since very few relievers come near 100 strikeouts in a season. The winner here in '05 had 1,395 Ks, whereas the '06 mag league winner had 1,271 and the Tout winner in '06 had 1,211. For the most part, if you approach 1,200 strikeouts in a season, you'll be a top-three performer.
What's weird with this category is how close the pack is behind the leader. In other categories, like wins for instance, the middle teams and the back-of-the-pack teams were pretty far out. But in strikeouts, especially in the '06 leagues, they weren't too far behind. As a matter of fact, the 11th-place team in the Tout Wars had only 97 fewer Ks than the winner. That means, a team could have had 1,113 strikeouts, only 98 away from the winner, and they would have only gotten one Rotisserie point to show for it. The difference in the other leagues is a little more obvious, but the point should be driven home: don't let one week's stats get by without getting the right players in your lineup. The 10-strikeout difference from a two-start hurler could be the difference between fourth and seventh in this category (that's three Rotisserie points).
If you don't reach at least 1,000 strikeouts, you are a cellar dweller with a team full of Kirk Rueters.
ERA (Earned Run Average = ER*9/IP): First, I want to revisit last year's numbers compared with the 2005 season. Offense was up last year and pitching was down, as I've stated before.
In '05, the majors saw one pitcher with an ERA under 2.00 (Roger Clemens), eight more under 3.00 and 39 more under 4.00.
But with offense a little higher last year, those numbers dropped -- big time.
No pitcher was under 2.00 and only two were under 3.00 (Johan Santana and Roy Oswalt). And there were only 26 pitchers under 4.00. So these three leagues, compared to each other will show some obvious differences.
The winners in '06 had a 3.88 or a 3.86 ERA, whereas that number in '05 would have landed them in sixth place. In '05, the ERA champ had a 3.17 ERA -- a huge difference.
Also, in '06, you could be a top-three staff with an ERA under 4.00, or settle in the middle of the pack with a 4.20 ERA. In '05, 4.00 would have put you ninth and 4.20 11th. The middle of that category in '05 was 3.92.
In both leagues, though, any ERA higher than 4.40 meant you were in last or second-to-last place.
WHIP ((BB+H)/IP): This category is closely related to ERA, much like homers are to RBI. It's pretty tough to have a good number in one and not the other.
So much of what I mentioned for ERA compared from '05 to '06 holds true.
The WHIP winners in '06 had a 1.264 (Tout) and a 1.266 (mag), but the '05 winner was only 1.156. The '06 winning numbers would have placed fifth in the '05 league.
The numbers begin to vary greatly after that. But it's safe to say that a 1.300 WHIP will give you a top-five standing here (1.290 for a top-three finish), and a 1.315 should be good enough to land you in the upper half.
Any staff WHIPs over 1.350 would likely send you to the bottom three of this category.
Looking at the current season
Offense is down right now, without question. I mentioned it in last week's piece, stating that the cancelled games are one cause, but the cold in general likely has more to do with it. Don't expect those numbers to suddenly catch up as the season warms up.
Of the 45 pitchers that have thrown at least 33 innings through one month this season, seven have ERAs under 2.00 and 12 more had ERAs under 3.00. In 2006, 33 pitchers had thrown 33 April innings, and only three were under 2.00, while 10 were under 3.00. That difference isn't huge, but it's notable. And in '05, 27 pitchers threw 33 April innings, six were under 2.00 and only five more were under 3.00.
I think you can expect a better pitching season this year -- but still not as good as the '05 season.
If you are in trouble in ERA or WHIP right now, take a look at your innings total compared to everyone else's. If yours is low, then don't worry, your solid starters should start providing average games, which will bring those numbers down. But if you are high in innings, ERA and WHIP, compared to others, you need to make a move now. That means your starters are staying in the game and it'll be tough to make up ground once they've fattened up your stats. Consider replacing your worst starter with a solid setup man for now.
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